Will Orbán Lose?
Hungary's Election
Will Orbán Lose?
Hungary faces tough and decisive election, on April 12. It looks like it will be close, whatever the polls say.
I am an American expat living in Budapest. I’m interested in the election and I’m learning from Hungarian friends here. Though not wanting to withdraw from the EU, they are EU-skeptic.
The fear: So far the EU can’t force its agenda on Hungary, but an opposing party win would bring it closer.
Orbán’s opponent, Peter Magyar (pronounced something like Mahd-jar…no g sound) left Orbán’s party two years ago, decrying scandal there. Magyar is now running for Prime Minister.
Media reports – see if this sounds familiar to any of you in the USA or elsewhere – say the Hungarian Secret Service “tried to break in and destroy the opposition party.” They also say votes are being bought. What about “AI made scare ads?” I saw one of them. It is a little girl crying because her father was lost in war. It does not claim to be an actual girl, and an actual film. In fact it is obviously not. For me as an American, however, it is eerily reminiscent of something I know about but did not see: the famous “Daisy Ad” with the little girl, the flower and the nuclear bomb.
But - media also claim a government minister has leaked confidential information to the Russians. Without evidence. Then, things get eerily reminiscent of false claims we Americans have heard before - they claim significant numbers of Russians/Russian are on social media, interfering. (Thus: an invalid result if Fidesz wins. We’ve heard this tune. So has Romania, by the way.) Oh, and we’re told Russia dispensed two agents to mount an unsuccessful but high-profile assassination attempt on Orbán, winning him sympathy votes. No proof of these things. It is too much like 2016 fake claims for me to accept any of this without proof.
Issue: Is Hungary too “close” to Russia? Consider that, landlocked, they need Russian energy, which arrives through a pipeline. Hungary states that they take a neutral stance on Russia. Why can’t we just believe them? Personally I tire of the “too close to Russia” line which the left has been deploying, without proof, against the right, for over ten years now.
From what I can see, many Hungarians dislike Ukraine - not every Ukraine but yes, they dislike Ukraine - and they firmly oppose the war. This issue plays differently here in Hungary than in the USA – and of course different yet again in Ukraine itself.
Many Hungarians believe Nazism is common in Ukraine (I know, I know Zelensky is of Jewish heritage). Most I speak to disagree with Ukraine’s Maidan Revolution, seeing it as the overthrow of Yanukovych, a democratically elected leader that a majority actually wanted. This surprised me, because in the USA I think we were presented with Yanukovych as a Russian-appointed stooge ready to make Ukraine like Belarus. Someone the vast majority did not want. - Additionally Hungarians feel very sorry for what they see as Russian minorities in Eastern Ukraine attacked by Ukrainians. For them, 2014 is where the Ukraine War really started.
One of the biggest problems is the treatment of Hungarians in Trans-Carpathia. This is in land that was part of Hungary before 1920’s Trianon Treaty saw it taken away. Conditions are very bad for Hungarians there.
Fidesz Faces Further Accusations
What else from Western media opposed to Orbán? (1) “Orbán owns the media” is commonly purported. That makes me laugh. Four of the five major internet sites are anti-Orbán. news outlets are strongly anti-Orbán. (2) “Orbán is an autocrat “. I am not living under an autocrat/dictator. I find this just a left-wing talking point. (3) Orbán and Fidesz have corruption. Yes. And so would the incomers. It is feature of life in much of Europe, including here.
(4) A major accusation – Fidesz supposedly supports sexual abuse. As many as 25,000 marched in Budapest last December in a very cold torchlight parade because they believe this. Basis? Two Fidesz ministers resigned about two years ago after a scandal where a pardon was given to someone who sheltered a child abuser. The latest ploy is to bring up the abuse which happens in government run child and teen homes. As if Fidesz causes this or as if they could put a policeman in every room. Again, no evidence of what Fidesz directly did, and no indication of how Tisza would do better.
Why Magyar/Tisza?
Why are people voting for Peter Magyar? His three main talking points appear to be (1) I am not Victor Orbán. Change! (2) I will improve the economy! Apparently by magical non-specific means – And, oh no – I would never dream of opening the border and thus recovering our one million euro a day fine from the EU due to its closure. (3) Our party candidates are not stating their positions on issues in order to stay out of culture war. So, no worries, Tisza has no beliefs to offend you.
I was talking with a Hungarian friend, who said “many Hungarians just want change, they don’t know what Tisza stands for.” - Hmmm…I pointed out I’d heard the slogan “change” before.
Certainly, there is corruption. Some party members are now quite rich. (Is this new? Does this not happen in the USA, etc.?) However, there are a lot better ways to get rich in politics without making the positive changes Fidesz has brought about.
The thought is that corruption probably can’t be escaped - Tisza would also be corrupt, but without the positive changes. Yes, this is different from the USA where we think corruption can end. Hungarians want it to end! They just see no evidence Tisza would be any better regarding corruption.
Hungary is also a work-fare society. If you do not have a job and are reasonably hearty, you must take any job -even street cleaner – to receive government support.
Hungarian Voting System
The Hungarian voting is complex. Hungarian citizens can vote - this includes Hungarian dual-citizens, born and living in the seven countries containing former Hungarian territory (e.g. Serbia, Romania and five others).
Each Hungarian citizen gets two votes:
(1)A ballot called “The List”, It is for a party but displays the name of the party and its leader. The List vote determines 93 out of 199 parliament seats. These are “general seats” for no district in particular. In reality, this is how you vote for the prime minister you want.
(2) A second ballot called the “Constituency” determines 106 out of 199 parliament seats. People vote for a parliamentary representative in their district. The representative’s party is listed.
Hungarians can vote for a parliamentary representative on their Constituency ballot and choose a <<<different party>>> on their List ballot. These are literally separate pieces of paper for these two votes.
Many Hungarians belong to smaller parties, or no party. And Example: suppose a Hungarian prefers the “Two-Tail Dog” party, (Yes, it exists!) but knows their party won’t win the local district. However, the voter does not want Magyar to win. Strategy:
1. The National List Ballot: Vote for Two-Tail Dog (local representative)
Purpose: This ballot determines 93 of the 199 seats in Parliament.
Strategy: By voting for the Two-Tail Dog national list, (actually by voting the Mi Hazánk presidential candidate and his party…its complicated!) the voter directly helps the party surpass the 5% parliamentary total-vote national threshold required for anyone from that party to sit in parliament no matter how many local elections are won. Only List votes count for this 5%. If the party fails to reach this 5%, all list votes for them are “lost” and do not result in any seats.
2. The Individual Constituency Ballot: Vote for Fidesz
Purpose: This ballot elects 106 local representatives using a first-past-the-post (plurality) system. The candidate with the most votes wins the seat outright.
Strategy: Since the voter wants Viktor Orbán as Prime Minister and believes the Mi Hazánk candidate cannot win the local district, they should vote for the Fidesz-KDNP candidate as the local representative.
Impact: This directly supports the governing coalition’s ability to maintain a majority in Parliament,
Who becomes prime minister? The candidate whose party has the most seats in parliament when it all settles out. But how does it setting out? Rather complex.
Losing List Votes: Votes for a losing Two-Tail Dog local candidate, would have been added to the Two-Tail Dog national list as “fragment votes”.
Winning Surplus: If the Fidesz candidate wins “The List”, any votes they receive beyond what was needed to beat the second-place candidate (plus one) are also added to Fidesz’s national list.
The Trade-off: By voting for Fidesz locally, the voter “sacrifices” a small number of fragment votes that could have gone to Two-Tail Dog’s national total. However, this trade-off ensures the local seat goes to the party they want in government (Fidesz) rather than a potential opposition challenger (like the Tisza Party).
A Hungarian friend will be working at the polls counting station, 5:30am to around 11:00pm on Sunday, election day. I may do a follow-up to this column based on what I learned.
Right now, this friend is telling me (1) Pay attention to last year’s 2025 European Parliament vote from Hungary. Can there be such a big change from those results? Tisza got nothing like the percent of votes current polls are showing. Fidesz got the majority in the EU election despite polls saying they would not. (2) Most polls appear quite questionable with regard to methods. (3) Look at four years ago. Polls had the opposition far ahead of Orbán, but he took 66% of Parliament (4) Nevertheless, particularly with Peter Magyar’s travels throughout Hungary, and the wildcard of the List votes, it will be close.
A Magyar Win?
What if Magyar wins? Many Hungarians have fears.
I get contradictory claims about Europe’s possible plans for future soldiers to provide “boots on the ground” in Ukraine. But a lot more (tax and/or “printed”) money - money Hungary currently holds up with their EU vote - could go to what appears to be a stalemate war which can’t be won.
Fidesz also claims the road to NATO and EU membership lies open for Ukraine if Magyar wins. And yes, the streets are plastered with posters showing Zelensky, Van der Layan and Magyar.
Many believe EU membership for Ukraine was likely the elite’s main goal for the war all along. Ukraine has a lot of natural resources, for example. (Biden knew it and was heavily involved.) Perhaps much of the EU would like to have Ukraine as members. However, Russia says it will not be comfortable without a buffer zone of neutral countries. Would you be, if you were Russia?
If Magyar wins, it does not look good for open borders or something close, may come to Hungary. That is the fear. Why? Magyar is promising to get EU funding back. He claims this won’t require anything related to the borders. So - there is a one million euro fine per day for not opening the borders, Magyar will get funds back, but won’t open the boarders. Erm….? (I won’t get into the complexity here regarding judges etc.)
I feel for anyone who is struggling with issues – But I will say, many Hungarians have fears on Trans Related Issues. Hungary’s parents do not want their sons and daughters told they probably need a very serious operation and/or hormones when young. Nor do they want men in women’s athletic contests, locker rooms and prisons. However, as they see it, Peter Magyar is pro-EU, and the EU is largely. pro these things. Hence anti-Magyar Hungarians see much of this coming if Magyar wins. In other words, Magyar making Hungary much more like Germany or France.
Schools here cannot teach about LGBT to children. It is for the parents, and it is another reason the EU is giving major problems to Hungary. It is a complex issue.
“What does Magyar advocate? It is hard to know. Magyar and his Tisza Party have adopted a strategy of avoiding “culture war” topics to build the broadest possible coalition. There are many things they won’t talk about. As for the issues they do address:
Anti-Corruption & Rule of Law: He has pledged to restore the rule of law, join the European Public Prosecutor’s Office, and end politically captured monopolies. OK, having left Fidesz two years ago, after having gained corrupt benefits of his own, he will do it? Forgive my skepticism. How do we know he will do better? He has not given evidence or specifics, just rhetoric.
Illegal Migration: Magyar claims to reject the entry of illegal migrants into EU territory, stating that illegal entry is not a fundamental right. However, he also advocates for harmonizing border regulations with EU law to avoid the massive one million euro per day fines currently imposed on Hungary. That sounds like relatively open borders to me.
Economic Reform: His platform includes targeted social spending for healthcare and education, as well as strengthening small and medium-sized domestic industries. These areas need help. But can he do this without “printing money” (increasing the money supply) and thus triggering inflation.
Foreign Policy: Magyar says he aims to end “swing diplomacy” and restore Hungary’s credibility within the EU and NATO. But he has signaled he would not immediately reverse current policies regarding non-support for Ukraine. Define ‘immediately”
Fidesz is making Ukraine a major platform plank. Two of their slogans - “Üzenjünk Brüsszelnek” - “Let’s send a message to Brussels”, and “A Biztos Választás”– perhaps best translated as “The Safe Choice” – proclaim Tisza risks being closer to the EU, implementing what Fidesz has so far prevented.
Hungary, Fidesz says, cannot afford larger taxation being sent to the Ukraine stalemate, something they now hold the line against in Brussels. Furthermore. Hungary has always been a link between east and west. For practical reasons they remain neutral on Russia: Their major energy source, the Druzhba pipeline, flows from there.
Accusations of Election interference are flowing from both sides, as you can see.
Will Orbán lose? No one knows - but I think it will be close, whoever wins.
Hungary under Magyar? It appears, demographically and socially it would be much closer to places like Germany. For many Hungarians, their culture is irrietrivably on the line in this election.